Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Hm.

Forrester: Why Most Marketers Should Forgo Foursquare

Report Finds That Only 4% of Online Adults Use Location-Based Services

The report could also be a wake-up call for social media on mobile phones, especially when comparing the location services to the last social-media darling, Twitter. The micro-blogging service reports 35% of its 125 million registered users are in the U.S. and only a fraction of that number accesses Twitter via mobile. In April, Twitter said 37% of its usage comes via mobile clients. Apply that percentage to U.S. tweeters -- we must extrapolate because the company does not break out U.S. users via mobile specifically -- and the 16 million Americans using Twitter via mobile is about comparable to the location-apps audience in total.

Almost 80% of location-based service users are male. Close to 70% of them are between the ages of 19 and 35, and 70% have college degrees or higher. Forrester also found these location-app users to be influential (the report finds they're 38% more likely to say friends and family ask their opinions before a purchase) and they are especially receptive to mobile coupons and offers. This set is up to 20% more likely to consult their phones before a purchase, and are far more likely to research products and services and read customer reviews.

This small audience is still attractive to some marketers. Forrester recommends that gaming, consumer electronics and sportswear marketers lead the way with testing these apps. Location apps have already proved they're not only for male-oriented brands. PepsiCo, Starbucks, Oil of Olay, Bravo and, most recently, Campbell's Soup have all launched campaigns with location apps.

Forrester analyst Melissa Parrish believes that male-oriented brands should forge the way and other marketers should hang back until these apps get bigger audiences. To date, Foursquare has more than 2 million users; Loopt 4 million and MyTown 2.5 million. Scale could come to the category if digital behemoths such as Facebook, Google and Twitter, which have already made moves toward location services, develop their own products.


40 Comments
Subscribe to comments on: Forrester: Why Most Marketers Should Forgo Foursquare
  By paular8706 | Miami, FL July 27, 2010 09:06:40 am:
I'm kind of shocked by the Forrester report. This is the equivalent of saying, in 1994, that the internet skews male, so real marketers should avoid it. I was a CIO of a home furnishings chain at the time, and I knew that thousands of women would be receiving PC's for Christmas. We built a web site in time for the holidays, and yes, they came.

This is an incredibly short-sighted view.
  By Kevin | New York, NY July 27, 2010 10:59:17 am:
Wow - for once, Forrester isn't riding the social media bandwagon and it gets taken to the woodshed by the commenters.

Step back for a sec, take a breath, and look at it thru the lens of "I'm in a marketing organization with big sales goals but very very limited resources so where should i be prioritizing my investments?" and you might see that Forrester's recos on LBS are helpful.
  By davefleet | Toronto, ON July 27, 2010 09:15:48 am:
This isn't really a surprise. 

We're talking about bleeding-edge tools here - the true leading edge of the marketing wedge. It takes time for new tools like these to get adopted. 

For now, location-based tools probably aren't the place for most companies to market. However, it does make sense for some companies to experiment (as Forrester suggests), as long as they go into it with the knowledge that the returns at this stage are likely to be minimal. In doing so, they get to learn their lessons early on, before the masses adopt the tools.
  By brownplante | San Jose, CA July 27, 2010 01:36:20 am:
Foursquare, Gowalla and Loopt are great apps but they lose traction when not enough merchants are offering any savings. I shouldn't have to be major or what ever to gain some type of deal from merchants.
  By brigadere | Los Angeles, CA July 26, 2010 09:02:22 pm:
Forrester is partially right in suggesting that brands might want to reconsider before investing in LBS. Yes, they should think twice before dumping a ton of money into some of these application. But they should absolutely be building their own solution or partnering with other offer a more sustainable solution.

No one should deny that location is an important element for marketing to mobile consumers. Mobile consumers are on the go and looking to make decisions in realtime. However, why should I have to join another entire social network to tell my Facebook friends that I'm going to Starbucks. The value just isn't adding up for consumers outside of NY, LA and Silicon valley.

Foursquare and others will need a better value proposition if they expect to achieve mass adoption. Even so, there are plenty of opportunities for brands with smart and creative people.

A good article:
http://www.imediaconnection.com/content/26969.asp
  By socialmediawave | oakville, ON July 27, 2010 10:49:03 am:
The report isn't flawed, Forrester is just the messenger. Data and insights change rapidly however.

Marketers will have to look at the LBS as a architectural platform like branded communities are to Facebook. Branded LB apps will be the norm, where dashboards are owned by the brand and the Foursquares et.al are just channels like other SN's are today.
  By maxgladwell | SANTA MONICA, CA July 27, 2010 11:20:26 am:
One of the problems is that this headline says "Foursquare" and not "Location-Based Services" in general. This won't be like Facebook and Twitter. Foursquare won't dominate like they have. LBS is more like publishing than social networking. Hundreds or thousands of niche players will survive and thrive, many at the local level. If location truly is the holy grail of advertising, LBS could be the new local or regional newspapers with revenue models that can truly sustain them as businesses. 

http://www.trioutnc.com is a superb example. Betting they have more reach than Foursquare in the golden triangle.
  By arturony | Stamford, CT July 27, 2010 11:50:56 am:
The Colonel Blimps of marketing will read this report (I haven't) and take a wait-and-see stance.

The innovative marketers will jump on board, get the jump on the big guys, and establish themselves in the mobile space at bargain prices. And if you believe the report, they'll be establishing themselves with thought leaders! 

That's what happened with radio, TV, and cable. No reason to believe the pattern won't be repeated.
  By condinet | OCANA July 27, 2010 12:03:34 pm:
For a long time now I have witnessed the tech community 'willing things into existence' that have little reality attached to the projected demand - even Twitter fits this too. That is why Facebook has 500 million users. John & Jane Doe are a decade behind those they view as 'geeks' and here's another 'sobering thought' ..... iPhone represents 6% of smartphone users :o
  By Pete | Palo Alto, CA July 27, 2010 01:44:09 pm:
Don't know. Is it worth it?

Yes, the 4Sq thing is fun like a treasure-hunt on a Saturday afternoon, but at the end of the day the mission produces something of questionable value to most people that I have encountered.

I've actually watched people try to redeem goodies in their local Starbucks store and quite often they come off looking sheepish, embarrassed and somewhat awkward because the establishment or staff don't really know how to handle these redemptions. Who want's stand in line continually explaining why you are entitled to something worth just a few bucks?

I had a conversation with one thirty-something guy, and he admitted that whilst it seemed fair game to redeem his "hard-earned prize", in the end he felt cheap spending too much energy justifying his 'entitlement'. It's not frictionless.

What gets interesting here is how far the likes of Starbucks will run with these gimmicky routines. Their marketing is exceptional, their brand exemplary, and they protect it staunchly. I'm just not sure that it makes brand sense for Starbucks to be associating itself with quests for virtual medals; deciphering which majors are real and which are impersonators, and bearing the brunt of difficult a difficult redemption process. This is not what their brand is all about.

Social media is great, and we all must experiment, but which organization wants to tarnish their brand by looking cheap, because it seems that's the way some consumers are starting to feel.
  By Jarobin | New York, NY July 27, 2010 02:24:09 pm:
The Location Based Service apps are really geared more towards small businesses looking to gain popularity and perhaps even expand. however it would be wise of some brands to not discard Foursquare as an important tool. Although it is typically more of a vehicle for QSR establishments (such as starbucks) it would make sense for any CPG brand to figure out how to promote within events or places where foursquare attracts its current and potential users.

I think the Forrester Report is right in some regard but only within the essence of time that these sorts of apps have been used, in a little while, this will (slowly but)surely change
  By akondeati | London July 28, 2010 07:08:15 am:
With platforms like Foursquare acquiring 100,000 new users every week how can Forrester hope to accurately predict the future for brands? Particularly when according to Forrester's own research, 10 million Americans are already on the network (4% of U.S. online adults). 

Regardless of how large Foursquare is today, Marketers shouldn't asses the value of a medium by how much attention they can buy with it but rather by how much value they can generate on behalf of their brands in the lives of their audience. Whether it be through utility (promotions and incentives), entertainment (geo-local content) or cultural relevance (branded badges) the question should not be whether to use Foursquare, but how.

Check out how we used Foursquare for Domino's UK here (hyperlink to http://mashable.com/2010/05/26/dominos-uk-foursquare-special/

Vexed Digital
http://www.vexeddigital.com/
  By taskelly | CLARKSVILLE, TN July 27, 2010 12:02:57 pm:
Great insight here! Isn't it interesting to learn who IS using LBS technology? I think it is, and I also think this group will PUSH for further development. Maybe devoting specific advertising dollars to this is not financially prudent right now, but keep me posted! I like the way this target market thinks and acts. 

gITnoticed® Marketing | http://www.gitnoticed.com
  By Scott | Denver, CO July 27, 2010 12:04:15 pm:
While I have not read the Forrester report either, one point I think every brand should know is you don't need to start promoting on LBS's to derive value. While these macro stats are significant, check out your profiles on these platforms (better yet, claim them if you've not already) and see for yourself what your customers are doing. There is far more strategic value in the data and reporting on your target's behavior than in national adoption rates.

Claiming and monitoring your listings is an easy first step and one that can help you decide for yourself when and how to leverage these platforms to resonate with your consumers.
  By KateReuvers | Cremorne July 27, 2010 12:15:23 pm:
They're not necessarily saying hold off - it's the same as with any marketing campaign - don't just jump in because it's the new greatest thing. 

If you can see a use for Foursquare that will benefit your customers then go ahead, but be aware of its limitations and demographics and make sure you're not throwing money away on a campaign that may not go anywhere if you're targeting the wrong crowd.
  By mikekmcclure | Southfield, MI July 27, 2010 12:54:52 pm:
Although, Forrester has a point, there are plenty of businesses who can benefit from good use of location based apps in their marketing, especially regularly visited places like bars and restaurants. 

I always advice businesses to check and see what the use is in their area. Here in Detroit, there are enough people using it that, for the right kind of business, it can make sense as part of their marketing mix. And that's part of the key. It has to just be a part of the marketing mix, you can't put a majority of your efforts into it. 

As for the women/men part. I understand why women might not want to have people know where they are - I've talked to some of my female friends about this who are considering using Foursquare. However, my own small sampling of 125 connections has about 40% female. 

Here's a recent post I wrote on the subject of can this work for your business: http://bit.ly/doAvc4
  By mickeylonchar | Spokane, WA July 27, 2010 01:28:56 pm:
No doubt, Foursquare et al have yet to reach critical mass. The question is, as a marketer do you want to wait until it does until you dip your big toe into it? Ed McCabe once famously noted that 'the last unfair advantage business has today is outstanding creative.' As other Social Media platforms have demonstrated, another 'unfair advantage' could be to be among those who are the first to master a new platform. 

http://www.quisenblog.com
  By JohnMacD1 | Horsham, PA July 27, 2010 02:16:22 pm:
Need to think long term here in regards to Mobile and LBS. Brands communicating with consumers at point of sale, or point of service, or point of entry can be extremely valuable. LBS is much more than just collecting badges. It's a great opportunity for any business to start recognizing loyalty and increasing WOM. Early adopters may have to work out the kinks but the opportunity for payoff I would think is too big to just ignore or wait too long on the sidelines.
  By JohnMacD1 | Horsham, PA July 27, 2010 02:18:50 pm:
Need to think long term here in regards to Mobile and LBS. Brands communicating with consumers at point of sale, or point of service, or point of entry can be extremely valuable. LBS is much more than just collecting badges. It's a great opportunity for any business to start recognizing loyalty and increasing WOM. Early adopters may have to work out the kinks but the opportunity for payoff I would think is too big to just ignore or wait too long on the sidelines.
  By mdurwin | Brighton, MS July 27, 2010 02:22:08 pm:
Foursquare shouldn't automatically be part of every marketing strategy anyway. Only if it makes sense for your audience and brand. On the other hand, to say that too few people use it so don't bother shows Forrester's typical myopic view of marketing: that's it's about quantity. Foursquare users are typically early adopters, online influencers and urbanites. Is this an audience that should be ignored? I'm very happy to listen to Forrester talk about numbers, but they're not a marketing firm and shouldn't be giving advice about marketing.
If marketers listened to Forrester back in the early 90s, no one would have websites!
  By dbreshears | Austin, TX July 27, 2010 02:45:01 pm:
2 things. 1) The report is unfortunate because early adoption by marketers will increase the quality of venue content and number of available offers, driving mainstream consumer adoption. This is one of those rare occasions where getting on board early might be a prerequisite to the platform's success. 2) I'm interested in seeing the business segments the report focuses on. For brick-and-mortar businesses, including retail, entertainment, and drinking/dining establishments, the technology is easily manageable, reasonably inexpensive, and a great way to reach in-market customers. Not sure advising against early adoption is a good call for all.
  By Jarobin | New York, NY July 27, 2010 03:49:30 pm:
If Forrester's would like to follow this study further, they should consider this point. an example of how to use foursquare and make it relevant to those in less populated areas

http://mashable.com/2010/07/27/cardstar-foursquare-integration/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Mashable+%28Mashable%29
  By Prouty | Madison, CT July 27, 2010 06:11:12 pm:
I have no opinion on FourSquare, but I do have one on Forrester. In the early 1990's when I was a content provider to AOL, Forrester regularly came out with reports claiming that AOL would never grow beyond some small increment of its current size. It got to be a joke--every six months Forrester would come up with a new cap for AOL's growth, AOL would surpass it, and Forrester would come out with another cap. Forrester had a number of reasons for believing AOL would stop growing, one of which was that AOL wasn't "all you can eat" in those days. So when AOL dropped its metered pricing and its growth went through the roof, Forrester promptly patted itself on the back, saying they had forced/convinced Steve Case to change the model, declared victory, and stopped issuing the reports (never mind that this was only ONE of a number of reasons why they'd said AOL had to stop growing, or that anyone who knows Steve would know he doesn't make decisions like that just based on consultant reports in the news). 

Fast forward to the late 1990s, when Forrester came out with at least one report on premium services that I can remember in which they flatly stated that no more than 1% of Internet users would *ever* pay for premium content or services because the Internet wants to be free. A year later a company I was working with found that 6% of families w/children under 18 were already subscribing to one or more premium services online, by 2002, 14% of families were doing so, and another 21% said they were planning to do so in the coming year; today I would venture to guess that most Americans pay for some kind of online premium service. I haven't followed Forrester much since then, but does anyone else see a pattern?
  By brettgreene | Boulder, CO July 27, 2010 06:28:47 pm:
Location Based Services are in their infancy. Of course the bleeding edge users are the ones primarily using the technology, but that is only part of the story. There are two important points to remember here.

One is that the 4% number of online adults who have used LBS platforms is a national number. In early adopter tech cities like Boulder, CO, where I live, there are definitely a higher percentage of overall users and of female users. So a local marketing campaign could get good traction from an LBS campaign in specific local or regional markets.

Another point is that the research mentions that the 19-35 year old males who are using Foursquare, Loopt and Gowalla are influencers. So even though they are a small minority of tech pioneers, they probably have have strong word of mouth habits that are worth tapping into depending on who you're trying to reach.

These points aside, LBS is the simply new hot thing that marketers are focused on. Just like we've been hearing for 3 or 4 years now that mobile computing is about to be the next big trend while the majority of cell phone users still don't have smart phones, it will take longer for LBS to go mainstream than the trend setters predict.
  By kdelight | New York, NY July 27, 2010 07:09:43 pm:
One item missed here is context of the campaign. One way marketers are using our Xtify LBS messaging platform (www.xtify.com) is to only message users who are using their mobile apps or an app with a related subject manner. Essentially it allows any brands app to have its own "check-in" the difference is that with Xtify, the app does not need to be on and their is no collection of personal data (it uses push notifications). In this way, Pepsi is reaching a constituency that has already show a predilection to its brands or to locations where it has a significant presence (ie. stadiums). Foursquare is a great service, it just does not allow the marketer to get the targeted message to the audience to the right degree. 
I got to go now and check-in at the pub.
www.xtify.com
  By bob | el dorado hills, CA July 27, 2010 08:00:16 pm:
Hello Hyperbole....please meet Superfluous

-bob sacco
  By alphagrl | Santa Rosa, CA July 27, 2010 08:11:05 pm:
Foursquare makes perfect sense for location-based businesses, as does placement on Google Locations, iPhone coupons, constant Tweeting, and the many available on-line/mobile location relevant apps. Think Steet-Food, product demos, events. Great crowd-sourcing tool.
  By GREG | BRIDGEHAMPTON, NY July 28, 2010 09:16:04 am:
I think Forrester completely missed the mark here. The LBS in my opinion the most important new deveopment marketers have seen since Google itself. Truly revolutionary.
  By nickwright1967 | Atlanta, GA July 26, 2010 08:09:32 pm:
I think this business model is fundamentally flawed. Consumers are going to need to be handsomely rewarded if they are going to be motivated to "check in" at foursquare several times a day. More of a take on it here: http://tinyurl.com/36ov6hr
  By leyarsan | CHICAGO, IL July 27, 2010 08:45:07 am:
I disagree. Foursquare has a "share" element built right into the interface of the "game". When you are close to a business, you receive a recommendation for another business left by a "friend". 

And, its affordable, why would you forego something so easy, fun and affordable?

I think you can even build campaigns around it like this one --http://www.theurbanhunt.com


http://www.leylaruinseverything.com
  By TOM | NEW YORK, NY July 27, 2010 09:47:40 am:
I agree the report is short-sighted (though I'm basing that on this article, not the actual report). 

Perhaps the premise should have been "if you're a follower, only willing to invest marketing dollars once a platform has reached a half-a-billion followers, then stay away from location-based services." 

The function of location social media should be enough to spark creative thinking, and excitement, in any progressive marketer. Here are customers willing to shout to their friends where they are, how frequently they visit, and give tips. As several have stated, the failure is on the marketers' part not substantially rewarding the loyal to build buzz. 

It's a powerful idea that is still percolating. But waiting to see "if digital behemoths such as Facebook, Google and Twitter" develop their own is what some were saying about Twitter in its infancy.
  By Dteicher | Fair Lawn, NJ July 27, 2010 09:54:05 am:
There's this thought that Brand's shouldn't adopt a technology, medium, or platform, that their audience doesn't use. But look at Pepsi's use of Stickybits, or VH1 promoting Foursquare in commercials - If these brands can create useful content or engagement or utilities on these platforms, they can use that to drive their audience to them. It's certainly riskier than simply operating where you know they are. But with that risk comes an open market and more opportunity.
  By maxgladwell | SANTA MONICA, CA July 27, 2010 10:24:32 am:
We tend to agree with the fact that LBS is fragmented and lacks scale. Which is why aggregation of the marketplace is also necessary. See this whitepaper on the topic:http://www.momentfeed.com/whitepaper
  By jaato | NEW YORK, NY July 27, 2010 10:34:00 am:
I also agree with Dave. Foursquare may not be as popular as Facebook or Twitter, but it's a matter of time before they attain the same reach. I believe that it would be better for some brands to be a part of something new and fresh in social media marketing that is gaining popularity among Early Adapters now than to wait it out too long.
  By stephanienelson | Charlotte, NC July 27, 2010 09:11:44 am:
I disagree with the suggestion to hold off on advertising on location-based services. True enough, there are not a lot of users. But that means the rates are lower. And it's been proven time and time again that if you're loyal to a medium, they'll grandfather in lower rates for current advertisers. The rates may go up, but not to the current "regular" rate. What do these advertisers have to lose except for more money in the future?
  By DAVID | TORONTO, ON July 27, 2010 09:42:39 am:
I have to agree with 'paular8706' - this is an opportunity to gain market share. People used to say the same thing about Facebook. Those who get in early have first advantage with this new generation and regardless of the campaign's success could probably garner some pretty good PR with a case study in trades like Ad Age.
  By cobb101779 | Boston, MA July 27, 2010 10:13:20 am:
I agree with Dave. This audience is small, but it's the right time to experiment. 

Think about it; a failed test right now won't hurt as bad as it would if you were to fail with a larger audience later down the road. And, what we can learn right now will be invaluable later. We could all sit back and wait... but then the service won't grow AND remind me... what are we waiting for? Even if we are only reaching a couple million users, find that niche and reach them – if it makes sense for you, because it won't for everyone. I don't think brands should be doing it just to do it, but for those that it makes sense for, I think they should be excited about the possibilities of location networks like Foursquare and Whrrl – and should be working to figure it out now.

I get it though. Right now it may not seem "worth it" when you're reaching such a small user base, but I strongly believe that this will take off eventually - we just need to jump the location sharing hurtle. Right now it seems like the Millennial's are moving these services forward, but the next generation will bring it to the masses. I know one report won't discourage everyone, and I'm excited to see this space grow and evolve.
  By tmiesen | Madison, WI July 27, 2010 10:37:43 am:
Instead of saying "don't use foursquare for marketing because only 4% of adults use it," why not capitalize on the younger, male demographic that does currently use it and branch out? 

Like the majority of the commenters, I think this is incredibly short-sighted. Mobile is the next giant area for growth (in the world, no less). Phones are getting "smarter," and soon there will be enough smartphone users to launch LBS in a more widespread manner. For now, stick to the early adopters and make them your brand ambassadors.

Very few companies have learned how to use Foursquare, and even less know how to monetize it. It goes far beyond just rewarding the mayor, and they'll soon learn that. I say continue to market with Foursquare and let them come to you. It will happen.

Tom Miesen
@tmiesen
  By JOHN | BOULDER, CO July 27, 2010 11:24:32 am:
It is not a market size issue but a technique issue. The key is to implement the app as a "push" technology. 

See more at www.avocatech.com/blog/index.php
  By Eliana Elias | Americana July 27, 2010 09:42:38 am:
What a sexist report!