Perhaps there really is a simple reason behind the end-of-season viewership slump experienced by the broadcast networks this year: Primetime television is losing its allure. That's the finding of a new study released by Relay Worldwide, a Chicago-based sponsorship and marketing company and a division of Publicis Groupe. The Relay Intelligence: The American Life Survey, conducted in early May, found that 38 percent of U.S. adults say they enjoy primetime less this year than in previous years. Thirty-six percent reported no change, while 26 percent said they were enjoying it more. Perhaps more telling, 48 percent said that watching primetime this year was less important compared with past years, compared with 32 percent who reported no change and 19 percent who said it was more important. That lack of urgency is likely due to the increasing number of opportunities to watch primetime on the viewer's own schedule, through digital video recorders or online. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they were aware that they could watch primetime shows online for no additional fee. Rich Luker, chief strategy officer at Relay Worldwide, talks to Media Life about why online TV shows have hit a critical mass, how that's hurting primetime, and why media people should care.
What did you find most surprising about this study?
Surprising? That 38 percent of American adults know they can get primetime TV on the internet for no additional cost. Not so many years ago penetration scores of 33 percent or more signaled mainstream adoption of an innovation.
By that standard, primetime on the internet is already coming of age.
I just finished watching the NEC video "Shift Happens" (available on You Tube), which presents all these statistics on how fast things are changing. Not just changing, but developing.
It's non-stop. I'm in the industry and feel like I can't keep up. So when 38 percent of American adults "catch it"--they can get primetime on the internet--that's breakthrough to me.
It's all the more surprising because the promotion of primetime TV internet availability seems very matter-of-fact. As a result, I would expect little viral appeal. And it rarely comes up as a conversation starter. But I often hear it as postscript to discussions of a show—"Oh I missed it, but I'll catch it on the web." So I was surprised the penetration has been as great as it is.
Most surprising, however, are the industry discussions about the results of that question. About half the people I have talked with expected it to be much larger, half much smaller. We are clearly not all on the same page in the industry when it comes to perceptions about the conscious awareness and attention to television programming on alternative screens.
Why are people enjoying primetime less?
This particular study didn't answer that question. But over the years I have done quite a bit of research on how Americans use their free time.
Anticipation is a key component to enjoyment. We love to look forward to things. The more we invest in being available for something that happens at a specific time, the more likely we are to enjoy it because we are more invested in it. There were Memorial Day fireworks shows last weekend in Chicago where I live. A DVR doesn't help there. You have to be in the right place at the right time. That's part of the joy.
In the days before VCRs, primetime WAS prime time because we were happily captured by the anticipation of the moment. Now that I am not constrained by time, primetime TV is the same as the local video store. When was the last time you heard someone say "Oh boy! I get to go to the video store in another 90 minutes!" Not going to happen.
There is no time-fueled excitement associated with watching video. Watching primetime TV used to be a complete experience. Now it's no different than a book on my shelf, a board game in the closet, and the local park. All are options of wonderful fun things to do with no sense of urgency to get at doing them.
How much of that reflects the quality of shows being offered in primetime, and how much reflects perhaps unrealistic expectations of our entertainment options these days?
It's hard to say much about the viewers' perceptions of programming quality.
The networks have studied audience reactions to new shows for decades. They don't always (well, rarely) predict the winners. Perhaps more to the point is there is more content competition for the same time period and, as I said earlier, less urgency to catch specific primetime shows during primetime.
As for expectations, if you are talking about the viewer, I'd think the expectations would be less because less is riding on primetime options.
When primetime TV was the only option, it was much more important to get it right. If you want to go out to eat and there are only three restaurants in town, and two of them aren't so great, that's harder than if there are 30 nearby you can choose from. If 10 of those 30 restaurants stink, it doesn't matter because you still have 20 good options to choose from.
If you are talking about industry expectations, it might be a different story. We have to remember these are closer to "the worst of times" for the industry because there is so much competition and constantly decreasing audience share of all options as a result.
For the consumer, however, it's the best of times-- almost anything you want, almost any time, from a variety of delivery systems.
How much impact do you think time-shifting, such as DVRs and availability of shows on the web, impacts the response to how important watching primetime is?
I think it's key.
Again, take away the time urgency and you get pushed to the back burner because the consumer knows they can get around to you anytime. The problem is, with so many great options, they may never get back to you.
Ask yourself: how many books are on your mental list you have yet to read? Movies you have meant to watch? I confess, I have a whole season of one primetime show I mean to watch on the internet one of these rainy weekends.
On the positive side, there are primetime shows I now watch exclusively on the internet because the broadcast time conflicted with another weekly obligation. DVRs and the internet have also made it possible to follow two shows on competing networks during the same time slots.
Are there other things impacting the view of primetime's importance, such as fewer must-see shows?
It's not just TV anymore. There are so many other wonderful options for things to do during primetime.
Multitasking also has an effect. A study of American 8-year-olds done a few years back concluded the typical kid has about 20 minutes a day of unstructured time. We are cramming way too many things into our days. Again, this is partly because we have too much of a good thing.
Thinking again about restaurants, if you only have three in town-- and they're all good-- there still will be a limit on how often you want to go before you tire of them. When you have 20 good ones, there may be a greater desire to eat out more often in general.
We try to fit more into every day. New technology allows us to do that on some level. But we are certainly at a point when we realize we don't have to look far for something to do. So no one option is as important today as it may have been 20 years ago.
What's the most important thing media buyers and planners can learn from this?
It's not just about the mass numbers. We can tell from the ratings tonnage that shows have smaller audiences. The important thing here is individual television viewers are also coming to the perception they enjoy primetime less and find it less important.
Much of what we do as consumers can be unconscious. I have no clue how much gum I chew, what brands or how often. If you told me I consumed more or less this year compared to previous years I'd just go, "Huh." It's just not important enough for me to keep track.
People are keeping track of the value and enjoyment of primetime or we would have gotten many more "I don't know" or don't care responses. People care. They are aware. It's a conscious decline. The greater ability buyers and planners have to identify primetime program that has urgency for their targets, the higher the quality of GRP they buy.
Do you expect the importance of primetime to continue to decline in coming years? Why?
I expect both enjoyment and importance to continue to decline as they have for nearly three decades now. But remember the days in the 1980s when people said cable would kill the networks? Remember when the VCR and video stores were going to kill the movie theater?
The only thing really dying is the sense of urgency around a decades-long tradition of gathering around the TV set weekday evenings to watch programs together. We still watch, in different ways, at different times, choosing from a much broader menu of programming and other leisure options than we did 40-50 years ago when we first started watching TV.
What hasn't changed in all that time is how we measure and assign the value of that viewing from a business perspective. It's like using horse and buggy measures today to assess the auto industry. At some point we need to consider the consumer value of media consumption in a manner more appropriate to the current leisure environment.
